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George Sarkisian-Projected winners March 24-25, 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

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Projected winners March 24-25, 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

March 23, 2011

 

During the first weekend (March 17-20, 2011) of the men’s NCAA basketball tournament, forty-eight games were played among the sixty-four original teams (not counting the three play-in games).

 

In trying to predict the winner of each of the forty-eight games, I used a trend chart (with a 5-period moving average) of the points scored (win or lose) by each of the sixty-four teams during the regular season and their conference tournament, if they had one.  (I did not include the March 17-18 game scores into the March 19-20 projections.)

 

The projected winner was selected in only 29 of the 48 games (60.4%).

 

In the forty-eight games, 3153 points were scored in the first half (3153/96=32.84 average per team) and 3343 points were scored in the second half (3343/96=34.83 average per team).  In the two overtime games, 14 points were scored in the first overtime and 13 points were scored in the second overtime.

 

In the east regional, 847 points were scored in the first half (847/24=35.29 average per team) and 843 points were scored in the second half (843/24=35.12 average per team).

 

In the southeast regional, 777 points were scored in the first half (777/24=32.38 average per team) and 888 points were scored in the second half (888/24=37.00 average per team).

 

In the southwest regional, 731 points were scored in the first half (731/24=30.45 average per team) and 800 points were scored in the second half (800/24=33.33 average per team).

 

In the west regional, 798 points were scored in the first half (798/24=33.25 average per team) and 812 points were scored in the second half (812/24=33.83 average per team).

 

Only in the east regional were more points scored in the first half than the second half (847 to 843).

 

Eight locations hosted the tournament games on March 17-20.  Six games were played at each location with twelve team scores.

 

Charlotte N.C. led in total points scored in both the first half and second half.

 

Here are the points scored in the first half, second half, first overtime, second overtime, and total points.

 

(charlotte, nc)                                       433            454                              887

(chicago, il)                                           353            415                              768

(cleveland, oh)                                      386            403                              789

(denver, co)                                          404            420                              824

(tampa, fl)                                             417            415                              832

(tucson, az)                                           371            391            14            13            789

(tulsa,   ok)                                           418            431                              849

(wash,  dc)                                           371            414                              785

 

 

Of the sixteen remaining teams, only eight (Florida, Connecticut, Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia Commonwealth, and Florida State) were the calculated projected winners in both games.

 

Brigham Young, Wisconsin and Richmond were not projected to win either of their first two games.

 

The projected scores and winners of the games on March 25 and 26 are listed below.

 

                                                                                                                                    Proj score Mar 25-26

seed     3            brigham young               projected winner neither round            75

seed     2            florida                                       projected winner both rounds              76

                                                                                                                       

seed     8            butler                                        projected winner second round            66

seed     4            wisconsin                                  projected winner neither round            56

                                                                                                                       

seed     3            connecticut                               projected winner both rounds              79

seed     2            san diego state                                projected winner first round               72

                                                                                                                                   

seed     5            arizona                                     projected winner both rounds              76

seed     1            duke                                         projected winner both rounds              76

                                                                                                                                   

seed     11            marquette                                projected winner first round               67

seed     2            north carolina                                    projected winner second round            73

                                                                                                                                   

seed     4            kentucky                                  projected winner both rounds              71

seed     1            ohio state                             projected winner second round            76

                                                                                                                                   

seed     12            richmond                                  projected winner neither round            64

seed     1            kansas                                      projected winner both rounds              74

                                                                                                                                   

seed     11            virginia commonwealth            projected winner both rounds              67

seed     10            florida state                             projected winner both rounds              64

 

 

Submitted by:

George Sarkisian

Senior Research Quality Analyst

Farmington Hills, Michigan 48334

Tel: 248-626-9137

Email:  sarkisiangeorge@yahoo.com   

www.GeorgeSarkisian.com

www.GradeAndComment.com

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